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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.